Études et sources complémentaires

Sélection d’études et d’articles sur les fortes précipitations en Suisse et publications concernant la statistique des valeurs extrêmes. Cette liste n’est pas exhaustive.

Analyses faites par MétéoSuisse

Saisonnalité des fortes précipitations journalières 

Résumé:
Extreme weather events, such as the flood episode in Switzerland in August 2005, deeply affect our society through their adverse impact on human life, infrastructure and economy. The assessment of their return periods and values is crucial for accurate planning of infrastructure and prevention measures. It is done by means of the statistical tools of Extreme Value Theory, which assumes stationarity of the precipitation process. So far, only yearly return levels are computed operationally, yet monthly values are desirable for many applications but still not as reliable as necessary.

Fortes précipitations horaires 

Résumé:Extreme value analyses of a large number of relatively short time series are in increasing demand in environmental sciences and design. Here, we present an automated procedure for the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach to extreme value theory and use it to provide a climatology of extreme hourly precipitation in Switzerland. The POT approach fits the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to independent exceedances above some high threshold. To guarantee independence, the time series is pruned: exceedances separated by less than a fixed interval called the run parameter are considered a cluster, and all but the cluster maxima are discarded. We propose the automation of an existing graphical method for joint selection of threshold and run parameter. Hourly precipitation is analyzed at 59 stations of the MeteoSwiss observational network over the period 1981–2010. The four seasons are considered separately. When necessary, a simple detrending is applied. Results suggest that unnecessarily large run parameters have adverse effects on the estimation of the GPD parameters. The proposed method yields mean cluster sizes that reflect the seasonal and geographical variation of lag dependence of hourly precipitation. The climatology, as represented by the return level maps and Alpine cross-section, mirror known aspects of the Swiss climate. Unlike for daily precipitation, summer thunderstorm tracks are visible in the seasonal frequency of events, rather than in the amplitude of rare events.

Littérature

Méthodes et leur application aux précipitations en Suisse

  • Blanchet et al. (2015), Regional Intensity – Duration – Frequency analysis in a GEV scale-invariant framework, Water Resources Research, submitted
  • Coles, S. (2001), Introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer series in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, London.
  • Katz, R. W., M. B. Parlange and P. Naveau (2002), Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Advances in Water Resources, 25, 1287-1304.
  • Leadbetter, M. R., G. Lindgren and H. Rootzen, (1983), Extremes and related properties of random sequences and processes, Springer series in statistics, Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • Naveau, P., A. Toreti, I. Smith and E. Xoplaki (2014), A fast nonparametric spatio-temporal regression scheme for Generalized Pareto distributed heavy precipitation, Water Resources Research, 50, 4011 – 4017.
  • Rust, H. W., D. Maraun and T. J. Osborn (2009), Modelling seasonality in extreme precipitation, The European Physical Journal – Special Topics, 174(1), 99-111.